Scotland was the first region in Britain to experience the rise of populist referendums. In 2014, prior to the Brexit vote, the Scottish independence campaign urged people to disregard experts and embrace a glorious national rebirth. Although the Scottish National Party (SNP) lost that battle, it has since dominated elections and made independence the primary dividing line among Scottish voters. Former SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon, known for her populist and progressive approach, garnered support from liberals as well.

However, recent events have severely damaged the SNP’s credibility. Sturgeon’s sudden departure due to a police investigation into her party’s finances has left the SNP in disarray. Moreover, the Scottish government’s inability to unilaterally call another independence referendum has obstructed the path to independence. The SNP, now led by Humza Yousaf, is projected to suffer heavy losses to the Labour Party in the next Westminster election, increasing the likelihood of Keir Starmer becoming the Prime Minister. The SNP’s stronghold in Holyrood, where they have held power since 2007, is also in serious doubt for the Scottish Parliament election in 2026. Scottish politics is currently in a state of flux.

Despite the turmoil, Scotland remains divided on the issue of independence. Even though the chances of another referendum in the near future are slim, both the SNP and the Scottish Tories, the strongest unionist voice, will likely continue to emphasize the prospect for years to come as a key electoral strategy. The SNP has become focused solely on the next strategic move for independence, neglecting basic tasks and allowing genuine problems to worsen. Scotland serves as a cautionary tale, demonstrating that a populist movement can unravel suddenly, causing lasting damage.

One of Scotland’s major challenges is slow economic growth. Productivity has stagnated since 2014, and certain areas of the country remain impoverished. Business investment as a percentage of GDP has remained flat since 1998, and if Scotland were an independent country, it would rank third from bottom in the OECD. The decline of North Sea oil and the increased reliance of Scotland’s banking industry on London post-financial crisis have further exacerbated the situation. Scotland’s good universities are limited in admitting Scottish students due to the policy of free education.

Scotland’s predicament is worse than that of the rest of the United Kingdom due to two main factors. Firstly, demographic changes will lead to a population peak followed by a decline over the next 50 years. Scotland’s population will age more rapidly than England’s, with the over-65s projected to make up a third of the population by 2072. This will reduce annual economic growth by half a percentage point. Secondly, the flow of funds from Westminster is expected to decrease. The Barnett formula, which determines the annual changes in the largest grant to Scotland, will result in a decline in per-person public spending in Scotland from 124% of English levels in 2027 to 115% in 2057.

To revive the SNP and improve Scotland’s economic prospects and demographic decline, the party should prioritize these issues. However, manufacturing outrage and maintaining a focus on constitutional confrontation are more politically expedient in the short term. Overcoming the culture of constitutional confrontation will require a cultural shift, as every issue is currently viewed through the lens of social outcomes rather than growth implications. The SNP’s relationship with businesses has cooled, and its emphasis on a “well-being economy” and its Green coalition partners’ rejection of GDP growth as a measure have further hindered progress. Power has been centralized in Edinburgh, preventing cities like Glasgow from implementing growth-enhancing policies.

Scrutiny and criticism of the SNP have been lacking, as Holyrood lacks a vibrant backbench culture and polarized politics have made think tanks and academics hesitant to challenge the SNP. Humza Yousaf’s approach still revolves around giveaways, tax increases, and constitutional fights. A new party leader, such as Kate Forbes, who prioritizes growth, may be necessary.

Rather than granting more powers to Holyrood in an attempt to curb separatism, the British government should play a stronger role in overseeing strategic infrastructure in energy and transport. The Scottish government’s spending should be subject to more scrutiny from the Public Accounts Committee, and Sturgeon’s refusal to face questioning from parliamentary committees in Westminster should change.

This more business-oriented approach may lead nationalists to accuse England of recolonizing Scotland. Unpopularity among the Scottish public makes it even more likely that Yousaf will make one final push for independence to win over SNP activists. While politics involves vision and emotion, Scotland’s example illustrates that even populists must eventually demonstrate their ability to address real problems. Scotland’s political class has been detached from reality for too long, and the country cannot afford another decade wasted.

################

We value your opinion! Please take a moment to share your thoughts by filling out our brief survey linked below this article.