Mark your calendars for July 11th, 2024. That's when Donald Trump is scheduled to be sentenced, just days before the Republican National Convention (Axios, May 30th). It's a date that could shake up the 2024 presidential race in unprecedented ways. Trump's legal team is planning to appeal, which could extend the process beyond the November election, but the possible sentences range from probation to up to four years in prison per count.

This sentencing comes after Trump made history by becoming the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a felony. He was found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records in New York (Fox News, May 30th), putting him in the unprecedented position of being the first major party nominee to run for president as a convicted felon.

The public's reaction to this bombshell has been mixed. According to a Forbes article from June 4th, an ABC News/Ipsos poll shows that nearly half of Americans want Trump to bow out of the 2024 race. The same article mentions a Morning Consult poll where 54% of registered voters approve of the guilty verdict. However, it's not all bad news for Trump. A NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, reported by Fox News on May 30th, found that two-thirds of registered voters say the conviction won't sway their vote.

Independent voters seem to be the most affected by this turn of events. The Hill reported on June 17th that 21% of independents are less likely to vote for Trump after the conviction. This could be crucial, as Trump currently holds a slight lead over Biden in national and battleground state polls (Fox News, May 30th).

But this isn't the only legal controversy surrounding Trump. A report from Protect Democracy on November 29th, 2023, highlighted Trump's controversial use of pardons during his presidency. They coined the term “henchmen pardons” to describe his pattern of pardoning associates implicated in the Mueller investigation, rewarding illegal political activity, and even pardoning those convicted of violent crimes. Trump has also promised to pardon January 6 rioters if re-elected, raising concerns about the potential vindication of political violence.

As we head into the 2024 election, this situation presents unprecedented challenges for both campaigns and voters. It's uncharted territory in American politics, and how it will ultimately affect the election remains to be seen. One thing's for sure: it's going to be an election like no other.

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