Did you know the Republican Party was essentially a third party at the time Abraham Lincoln ran for president? While the current party is a “far cry” from Lincoln’s era, there is something to be noted from this example. A need for something different.

Yet…

The United States presidential election system has historically been dominated by two major parties, the Democrats and the Republicans. However, third parties have occasionally emerged to infuse excitement, challenge the status quo, and provide an alternative for voters seeking change. With the increasing number of independent voters, particularly among Millennials and Gen Z, the potential significance of third parties is becoming more evident. 

This article provides an in-depth analysis of the data and real-world examples illustrating the impact of third parties in presidential elections. Our country used to be looked at as “the golden child” on how a true democracy is run. Can we say that now?

Millennial and Gen Z Voters: A Growing Independent Force

Millennials and Gen Z voters represent a significant portion of the U.S. population, with approximately 72 million Millennials and 68 million Gen Z individuals in the country. According to recent surveys, about 44% of Millennials identify as independent voters, while roughly 47% of Gen Z shares this political affiliation. This translates to approximately 31 million independent Millennial voters and 22 million independent Gen Z voters. Together, these two cohorts account for approximately 53 million independent voters, which is a substantial portion of the U.S. population.

Voter Turnout and Eligibility

In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, there were approximately 168 million registered voters, with a record high turnout of 159 million voters, representing 66.8% of eligible voters. The total number of eligible voters in the U.S. in 2024 is expected to exceed 170 million, given population growth and voter registration efforts. As of 2024, around 240 million people are eligible to vote in the United States, taking into account factors such as age (18 or older), U.S. citizenship, and state-specific voting requirements. However, not all eligible voters are registered, and actual voter turnout is generally lower than the number of eligible voters.

Third-Party Voters and the 2020 Presidential Election

In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump received approximately 74.2 million votes, while Joe Biden garnered about 81.3 million votes, marking the highest turnout in U.S. election history. Roughly 4.5 million people voted for third-party candidates. Given that 159 million voters represented 66.8% of eligible voters in 2020, the total number of eligible voters would be approximately 238 million.

The difference between the total number of eligible voters (238 million) and the number of actual voters (159 million) is 79 million. This means that 79 million eligible voters in 2020 did not vote for either side. If the 4.5 million third-party voters were to unify with the 79 million eligible voters who did not vote, they would have a commanding lead over both Democratic and Republican Party voters, based on historical standard election results.

The Impact of Third Parties in Presidential Elections

Third parties have historically received a small percentage of votes in U.S. presidential elections, typically ranging from 1% to 5% of the popular vote. However, there have been instances where third-party candidates have had a more significant impact on election outcomes.

Average Third-Party Voting Statistics: 

• In most U.S. presidential elections, third-party candidates receive between 1 million and 9 million votes combined.
• Year with the highest third-party vote count: The 1912 election saw the highest third-party vote count when Theodore Roosevelt, running under the Progressive “Bull Moose” Party, received 27.4% of the popular vote, about 4.1 million votes. This remains the most significant third-party performance in U.S. history.
• Notable examples: In the 1992 election, Ross Perot ran as an independent and received 19% of the votes (about 19.7 million votes), and in 2016, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein together received 4.3 million votes.

Real-World Examples: Third-Party and Independent Presidents

Several countries have seen presidents or leaders elected on third-party or citizen-run tickets, outside the traditional political party structures. These cases often occur during periods of political dissatisfaction or upheaval. Here are a few notable examples:

1. United States:
   1. Abraham Lincoln (1860): Elected under the newly-formed Republican Party, which was essentially a third party at the time, breaking away from the Whigs and Democrats.
   2. Theodore Roosevelt (1912): After serving two terms as a Republican, Roosevelt ran again on the Progressive “Bull Moose” Party ticket in 1912. Although he didn’t win, his third-party candidacy is one of the most successful in U.S. history.
2. France: Emmanuel Macron (2017): Macron won the presidency running under the La République En Marche! movement, which he founded. The movement, although centrist, was not tied to any of the traditional French political parties at the time and was considered a major departure from the establishment.
3. Peru: Alberto Fujimori (1990): Fujimori won the presidency on a citizen-based platform through his party Cambio 90, which was not an established political force. His outsider status allowed him to capitalize on widespread discontent with traditional parties.
4. Italy: Silvio Berlusconi (1994): Berlusconi was elected as the Prime Minister (Italy’s executive position) on the ticket of Forza Italia, a new political party he created just a few months before the elections, disrupting the traditional political order in Italy.
5. Iceland: Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson (1996): Grímsson won the presidency on the ticket of the People’s Alliance, which was not one of the main parties at the time, making his victory notable as an independent or third-party candidate.
6. Philippines: Rodrigo Duterte (2016): Although Duterte was affiliated with the PDP–Laban party, his campaign was largely seen as an outsider candidacy, with broad support from independent voters and various citizen-based movements, positioning him as a non-traditional candidate.
7. Guatemala: Jimmy Morales (2015): Morales, a comedian with no political background, won the presidency under the National Convergence Front (FCN), a relatively new and minor political party at the time. His anti-corruption stance resonated with voters tired of political elites.

In Ukraine, there are notable examples of presidents winning on platforms that were outside the traditional party system, often emerging from citizen-backed movements or forming their own political parties:

Volodymyr Zelensky (2019):

Zelensky, a former comedian and actor with no prior political experience, ran for president under the newly-formed Servant of the People party, which was named after his popular television show in which he played an ordinary man who unexpectedly becomes president.

His campaign was seen as a citizen-driven movement, focusing on anti-corruption, reform, and a rejection of the political establishment. Zelensky’s success was largely due to his outsider status and his ability to connect with the frustrations of many Ukrainian citizens. He won a landslide victory, receiving over 73% of the votes.

Viktor Yushchenko (2004):

While Yushchenko had ties to the Our Ukraine bloc, his victory was heavily supported by the Orange Revolution, a citizen-led movement demanding fair elections and an end to corruption. His campaign capitalized on widespread discontent with the existing political establishment and rigged elections, and his eventual presidency marked a significant shift towards pro-Western policies in Ukraine.

Both Zelensky and Yushchenko’s victories were closely tied to grassroots or non-establishment movements, making them examples of how third-party or citizen-driven campaigns can succeed in Ukraine’s political landscape.

Conclusion

Third parties and independent candidates have the potential to enrich the political landscape and challenge the dominance of the two major parties in the United States. The increasing number of independent voters, particularly among Millennials and Gen Z, suggests that there is a growing demand for alternatives to the traditional political establishment. While third-party candidates have historically received a small percentage of votes, they have occasionally had a significant impact on election outcomes.

The data and real-world examples presented in this article highlight the potential for third parties to disrupt traditional political systems, particularly during periods of significant social or economic discontent. By providing an alternative to the two major parties, third parties can help ensure that the voices and concerns of a broader range of voters are represented in the political process. As the political landscape continues to evolve, it is essential to recognize the potential of third parties in fostering a more diverse and inclusive political environment that caters to the needs and preferences of an increasingly diverse electorate. Embracing the role of third parties can lead to healthier political competition, spurring innovation and adaptation within the two major parties as they strive to maintain their relevance and attract supporters. 

Moreover, third parties can serve as incubators for fresh ideas and policy proposals that may not find a home within the established party structures, ultimately enriching the political discourse and fostering a more vibrant democracy. As the political landscape evolves, it is crucial to strike a balance between maintaining stability and fostering an appetite for change. Embrace a societal evolution in an effort to build resilient communities that decide as much with their heart as with their heads. 

Encouraging the growth and development of third parties, while ensuring a fair and balanced electoral system, can contribute to a stronger, more resilient and more representative democracy. By embracing the potential of third parties, the United States can continue to be a beacon of democracy and a model for political progress around the world. Can we say that now?

################

We value your opinion! Please take a moment to share your thoughts by filling out our brief survey linked below this article.